TSOH Investment Research Service
“Ted Williams wrote a book called ‘The Science of Hitting’. In the book, he shows a diagram of him at the plate, with the strike zone divided into 77 baseballs. And he said, ‘If I only swing at pitches in my sweet spot, I can bat .400 - but if I have to swing at low outside pitches that are in the strike zone, I’ll bat .230’. He said the most important thing in hitting is waiting for the right pitch. Now, he was a disadvantage because if the count was 0-2 or 1-2, even if the ball was where he’d bat .230, he had to swing. In investing, there are no called strikes.”
My name is Alex Morris (also known as “The Science of Hitting”, or TSOH); I'm a long-term investor, a CFA Charterholder, and a former buyside equities analyst. I spent 10 years in the finance industry, most recently as part of a four person team responsible for allocating ~$1.2 billion in client assets. In April 2021, I launched the TSOH Investment Research service, with the goal of providing complete transparency around my investment philosophy, equity research process, portfolio decision-making, and outcomes (returns disclosed quarterly).
What Is TSOH Investment Research?
Through the TSOH Investment Research service, I provide complete access to my investment research process and all portfolio decision-making. The portfolio disclosed to subscribers includes all of my investable assets (everything outside of a small checking account). My promise to subscribers is 100% transparency.
I post conclusions from research on new companies, including my planned course of action (if I’m buying, or if not, why) and a financial model when appropriate, as well as updates on current holdings.
I tell subscribers before any portfolio changes, with the rationale for both sides of the trade (what I’m buying, what I’m selling, and why).
I provide quarterly updates with complete portfolio transparency (each position and its current weighting) as well as my portfolio returns.
In a nutshell, I share all research and portfolio changes with subscribers.
What To Expect:
As a Premium subscriber you will receive:
Six investment write-ups per month (every Monday at 6:30am ET and every other Thursday at 6:30am ET), including deep dives on new companies, portfolio updates on current holdings, and investment philosophy discussions (asset allocation, holding cash, #NeverSell, etc.)
The disclosure of ALL portfolio changes before they're executed with detailed commentary explaining my rationale for any portfolio changes
Complete access to all previous investment reports, including deep dives on companies like Airbnb, Netflix, Roblox, Costco, Nike, and many others
To get complete access to all future investment research (new ideas + updates + philosophy discussions) and the full TSOH archives, as well as the disclosure of all portfolio changes before they are executed, become a premium subscriber.
About Me:
CFA Charterholder, MBA, undergraduate Finance degree (UF)
10 years as a buyside analyst, most recently as part of a four person investment team responsible for allocating ~$1.2 billion in client assets (this has been my sole professional endeavor since the April 2021 launch)
9,800+ Substack readers and 500+ paid subscribers
My Investment Framework:
I spend my days searching for high-quality businesses that are misunderstood or underappreciated, providing the opportunity for better than average returns over the long run (my two largest positions as of January 31st, 2022, Microsoft and Berkshire Hathaway, have been top five portfolio holdings since 2011). In addition to a long-term investment time horizon, I run a concentrated portfolio: as of January 31st, 2022, my five largest positions accounted for ~50% of my portfolio. To quote Charlie Munger, my preferred approach is “patience followed by pretty aggressive conduct”. I’m selective with where I invest my capital - but when I find an opportunity that meets my criteria, I’m ready to swing.
My ideal investment would meet the following criteria:
Operates in an industry that is expected to support structural (organic) growth for the business over the next 5-10 years in excess of GDP growth;
With attractive unit economics and high returns on incremental invested capital (ROIIC) as a result of sustainable competitive advantages;
Run by individuals with skill, integrity, and a long-term time horizon; and
Offered to minority shareholders at a reasonable valuation (at a price that is expected to offer better than average equity returns over the long run)
Start Here (Links):
April 2021 Portfolio Review, Part 1
This portfolio review provides insight into my investment philosophy and thoughts on my largest holdings as of April 2021. It will give you a clear indication of my personal investment philosophy (and how it compares to your own approach to security analysis and portfolio management), which should help when deciding whether its worthwhile to become a Premium subscriber.
This write-up outlines some of my prior investment mistakes, which have been formative experiences in terms of the investment approach that I employ today.
I also discuss my historic investment returns as of the post date (April 5th, 2021), which speaks to complete transparency around all research, portfolio decisions, and returns (this information is updated quarterly for TSOH subscribers).
Airbnb revolutionized the travel industry. After a near-death experience in 2020, the company emerged from the pandemic with a renewed appreciation for the importance of focus and operational excellence (“it was a crucible moment for the company”). They’ve also benefited from structural changes in travel, most notably the rise of long-term stays. In this deep dive, I discussed the company’s history, its current economics, and my views on its valuation. As a subscriber, this is the quality of work that you should expect on new company research.
This investment write-up looks at the history of Amazon Web Services (AWS), which I believe is one of the most fascinating stories of innovation and business success in recent decades. It is a perfect example of what I’m hoping to uncover as part of my research process: businesses that can be expected to generate significant shareholder value over the course of the next 5, 10, or 20 years.
To give you a sense for the kind of companies that I tend to focus on, here’s a list of the research that I’ve sent to subscribers in the past six months.
Feedback From Premium Subscribers About TSOH Investment Research:
Alex Morris (TSOH Investment Research) @TSOH_Investing
I removed the paywall on this write-up, so if you're potentially interested in subscribing, this will give you additional insight into how I think through an investment (FWIW, Microsoft is my largest holding and has been a top position for the past 10 years). https://t.co/5CU6XvdY7p
Alex Morris (TSOH Investment Research) @TSOH_Investing
Went on The Pomp Podcast to discuss all things Costco. Thanks to @APompliano for having me, I really enjoyed it. Check out the Substack for the Costco write-up, as well as deep dives on Microsoft, Spotify, Twitter, Five Below, Amazon (AWS), and others. https://t.co/3FKZPYTwfj
Science of Hitting @TSOH_Investing
Lionsgate: An Attractive Minnow? https://t.co/D9AC19RAP3 https://t.co/uv4OchRQz6
Science of Hitting @TSOH_Investing
Monday's write-up will be a deep dive on a retailer that has reported same store sales (SSS) growth for 31 consecutive years. In addition, the company has generated a trailing 5-year EPS CAGR of ~17% (2021e). Sign-up at the link so you won't miss it! https://t.co/yU16oEkRLY https://t.co/XcVy1i4uFK
Science of Hitting @TSOH_Investing
Monday's write-up will be a deep dive on a retailer that has reported same store sales (SSS) growth for 31 consecutive years. In addition, the company has generated a trailing 5-year EPS CAGR of ~17% (2021e). Sign-up at the link so you won't miss it! https://t.co/yU16oEkRLY https://t.co/XcVy1i4uFK
Science of Hitting @TSOH_Investing
"We Went Where They Ain't" A Deep Dive on Retailer $DG https://t.co/nwTRgJOaX0 https://t.co/9tod9HV2RZ
Science of Hitting @TSOH_Investing
1/ Some news – This morning, I launched the TSOH Investment Research Service on Substack. Subscribers will have complete access to my investment process and portfolio decision-making. You can sign-up below. The first few posts are live. https://t.co/PWsHGrluxd
Science of Hitting @TSOH_Investing
1/ Some news – This morning, I launched the TSOH Investment Research Service on Substack. Subscribers will have complete access to my investment process and portfolio decision-making. You can sign-up below. The first few posts are live. https://t.co/PWsHGrluxd
Alex Morris (TSOH Investment Research) @TSOH_Investing
@JGreenwald86 @DAG_Investments Here's a high-level review of my thoughts on MSFT (from April) https://t.co/X96rsfwF4q
Alex Morris (TSOH Investment Research) @TSOH_Investing
In light of the FB news, I've removed the paywall on my Q2 FY21 update. For complete access to my research and portfolio decision-making (disclosure of all changes before they're implemented), please subscribe to the TSOH Investment Research Service. https://t.co/RwC7rjoSJE
Alex Morris (TSOH Investment Research) @TSOH_Investing
"My Investment Philosophy" There's no paywall on today's post because I believe it's pertinent information for both current and prospective subscribers. This is an overview of who I am, or at least who I’m trying to be, as an investor. https://t.co/OKF1E3T5Wx
Alex Morris (TSOH Investment Research) @TSOH_Investing
"On The Shoulders Of Giants" https://t.co/odjXQ3qca0
Alex Morris (TSOH Investment Research) @TSOH_Investing
Dollar General: Widening The Moat https://t.co/IYjSha6PjwThanks again for considering the TSOH Investment Research Service. If you have any questions, please let me know (thescienceofhitting@gmail.com).
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