Peloton: Subscriber Squeeze

Review all prior PTON research and portfolio changes on the TSOH website

From “Peloton: Clipping In” (February 2026):

“A successful investment, should Peloton remain a standalone company, requires improved trends that support financial stability in the subscription business… The market is doubtful about stabilization, a conclusion clearly supported by the worsening trends of the past two years. While the road to better sub trends is uncertain, we have a much improved balance sheet and an attractive valuation [~$4.6 per share]. In my mind, it is time to take action.”

PTON stumbled out of the gates on that initial purchase (at a ~6% weighting), with the stock down ~20% over the next month. I thought this was overly punitive, so I bought more: in mid-March, I took PTON to an ~8% weighting at ~$3.7 per share. That marked a near term bottom: despite the lackluster response to the Q4 FY26 results, the stock is still up >50% from the lows. (As a reminder, I also trimmed PTON on July 23rd to fund the NFLX addition.)

I share this for two reasons: first, it highlights how volatile this stock has been of late, which is somewhat surprising to me given their much improved balance sheet; and second, it highlights my willingness to be tactical on position sizing in response to that first point (as discussed in the “Q2 2026 Portfolio Update”). I will respond to the opportunities presented, even if that appears closer to short-term trading; I want to capitalize on large stock price moves, while maintaining appropriate attention to long-term considerations.