Great post. I wanted to push back slightly on your argument that Netflix has "declining engagement". I disagree with the framing. You are comparing NFLX share of U.S. streaming time against YouTube’s over the last 4 years, but the more accurate way is to look at NFLX share of TOTAL U.S. TV time.
By using "streaming" as the denominator, the data becomes unintentionally skewed. Streaming is a subset of all TV; while the category is growing as it takes share from broadcast/cable, YouTube has been growing at a faster YoY rate than Netflix. So while YouTube’s share within the streaming category is rising and Netflix’s is shrinking, this ignores the fact that total streaming hours are increasing overall in aggregate.
In my view, the Nielsen Gauge report remains the cleanest measure of total TV viewing market share. From Jan 2025 to Jan 2026, streaming grew from 43% to 47% of total U.S. TV time. Both YouTube and NFLX grew total viewership, the #1 and #2 platforms for total TV time. So the idea Netflix engagement is declining is not true. While others share this perspective, I believe their $25 billion buyback program will eventually prove the point.
Keep up the great work with TSOH; I would simply suggest changing the framing from "Share of Streaming" to "Share of Total TV” and you will see that both Netflix and YouTube can win! Thanks — Accrued Interest (Sim)
Yes, fair point - it depends how you're defining the relevant market. I was looking at it purely in terms of their pie within streaming, but naturally the ongoing share gains of streaming broadly is a relevant consideration to. We can also look at this from the perspective of the overall hours viewed (from the company's semi-annual engagement reports), along with the periodic disclosures on sub counts. Even then, there are still some relevant variables to consider (for example, what management has noted on TV time in Japan versus the U.S.).
Agree that Netflix and YT can both win; also think it's important to examine where each of them are winning, along with how the competitive playing field is evolving over time.
Great post. I wanted to push back slightly on your argument that Netflix has "declining engagement". I disagree with the framing. You are comparing NFLX share of U.S. streaming time against YouTube’s over the last 4 years, but the more accurate way is to look at NFLX share of TOTAL U.S. TV time.
By using "streaming" as the denominator, the data becomes unintentionally skewed. Streaming is a subset of all TV; while the category is growing as it takes share from broadcast/cable, YouTube has been growing at a faster YoY rate than Netflix. So while YouTube’s share within the streaming category is rising and Netflix’s is shrinking, this ignores the fact that total streaming hours are increasing overall in aggregate.
In my view, the Nielsen Gauge report remains the cleanest measure of total TV viewing market share. From Jan 2025 to Jan 2026, streaming grew from 43% to 47% of total U.S. TV time. Both YouTube and NFLX grew total viewership, the #1 and #2 platforms for total TV time. So the idea Netflix engagement is declining is not true. While others share this perspective, I believe their $25 billion buyback program will eventually prove the point.
Keep up the great work with TSOH; I would simply suggest changing the framing from "Share of Streaming" to "Share of Total TV” and you will see that both Netflix and YouTube can win! Thanks — Accrued Interest (Sim)
Hi Simeon,
Yes, fair point - it depends how you're defining the relevant market. I was looking at it purely in terms of their pie within streaming, but naturally the ongoing share gains of streaming broadly is a relevant consideration to. We can also look at this from the perspective of the overall hours viewed (from the company's semi-annual engagement reports), along with the periodic disclosures on sub counts. Even then, there are still some relevant variables to consider (for example, what management has noted on TV time in Japan versus the U.S.).
Agree that Netflix and YT can both win; also think it's important to examine where each of them are winning, along with how the competitive playing field is evolving over time.
- Alex