Ollie's: A Good Stock Cheap?

From “Ollie’s: Good Stuff Cheap” (January 2022):

“Mark Butler rang the register when Ollie’s completed its first sale back in Mechanicsburg in July 1982, and he rang the opening bell in New York City 33 years later when the company went public in July 2015… This seems like a uniquely tough situation as it relates to ‘key man risk’ (given the execution risk inherent to retail generally, and in the closeout business specifically).”

John Swygert, who became CEO upon Butler’s passing in late 2019, remained in that role for six years. In February 2025, Eric van der Valk, who was hired as the company’s COO in May 2021, replaced Swygert as CEO. (Before joining Ollie’s, van der Valk was the COO of Christmas Tree Shops.)

While we’re less than 18 months into van der Valk’s tenure, Mr. Market’s assessment of Ollie’s future has meaningfully worsened of late: OLLI, which traded at ~$133 per share at the end of 2024, closed on Friday afternoon at ~$72 per share (it’s back to price levels that were first reached in 2018).

This performance seems somewhat at odds with the financial results.