Netflix: What's Coming Next

Note: Access all prior Netflix (NFLX) research reports on the TSOH website.

At a TED conference in July 2018, Netflix co-founder Reed Hastings was asked about the company’s unlikely, but ultimately successful, pivot from DVD’s to streaming: “We had one advantage: We were born on DVD, and we knew that was temporary. Nobody thought we would be mailing discs for 100 years. So, we had a lot of paranoia about what was coming next. That was part of our founding ethos: worrying about what’s coming next.”

That paranoia bred meaningful action, with two notable examples being the January 2007 launch of the streaming service and the January 2016 move to truly go global (simultaneous launch in 130+ additional countries). With a clearly defined strategy, a long-term mindset, and a willingness to adjust tactics as appropriate to do so, Netflix has spent 20 years surfing a massive wave and investing aggressively to strengthen its global leadership position.

One constant throughout has been concerns about the sustainability of Netflix’s lead (questions about the attractiveness of its business model were long asked as well, but those voices have died down as annual operating income increased from ~$400 million to ~$16.2 billion over the past decade).

Most recently, these concerns arose in 2018 / 2019 with the launch of DTC services from legacy U.S. media companies, in 2022 due to paid subscriber losses, and now in 2026 with heightened competition from short form video, YouTube, and the FAST services (Tubi, The Roku Channel, etc.), which is pressuring engagement and may stymie sub growth and monetization.