Yesterday afternoon, Dollar Tree (DLTR) held its 2025 Investor Day.
Given that DLTR is my largest position – and by a meaningful margin – I want to share a few key takeaways. As always, I’d encourage you to revisit prior TSOH research on the company for a fuller understanding of my views here, including how they’ve evolved over time. That historic perspective provides useful context for my current views on Dollar Tree’s business and stock.
As a reminder, Dollar Tree last held an Investor Day in June 2023. One thing that stood out about the previous Investor Day was the sequencing of the presentations: after opening remarks from then CEO Richard Dreiling, the focus shifted to Family Dollar’s (FDO’s) turnaround efforts, as opposed to the compelling long-term opportunities at Dollar Tree. To put that in context, the price tag on the Family Dollar sale in March was $1 billion, or about one-twentieth of the market cap currently ascribed to Dollar Tree by Mr. Market. To me, that exemplifies the distraction and misallocation of resources as a result of the Family Dollar acquisition; the path forward is now much clearer.