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Great article! Curious as to your thoughts on the take-rate differential between ABNB and BKNG? Do you think that gap will remain in the future or close (either ABNB trying to improve profitability or BKNG trying to gain share)? I agree that in a portion of ABNB's bookings they have a unique proposition but suspect that things could get quite competitive over the more mainstream listings, reducing the profit pool for both companies?

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Hi Generic,

In order for ABNB to ultimately hit that 30%+ EBITDA margin target, I believe that take-rates will have to increase. That said, as I noted in the post, I'd expect management to move somewhat slowly on this, particularly on the host side (we're still seeing some softness on both host growth and active listings growth post-COVID). IMO, they will likely focus on solidifying their competitive position over the next few years, not on reaching those LT margin targets.

Thanks for the thoughtful question!

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Sep 25, 2021Liked by The Science of Hitting

Great analysis Alex !! I wonder how ABNB revenues will be impacted during a recession.. BKNG revenues remained impressive during 2008 crisis

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Thanks Balaji! I think it's fair to assume that what we saw in the months after COVID, which reflected the inherent adaptability of the platform, would likely play out during a recession as well. I would expect ABNB to fare a bit better than some of the traditional hotel companies. Thanks for the kind words!

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