Airbnb: “Belonging Anywhere” In 2007, Brian Chesky and Joe Gebbia had an idea. The two roommates, who were looking for a way to pay the rent on their San Francisco apartment, noticed that an industrial design conference was attracting thousands of visitors to the city, leaving few vacancies at local hotels. If they could somehow “rent” their apartment for a few nights, it would help them pay the bills. Chesky and Gebbia created a simple website called AirBedandBreakfast.com (“it’s like Craigslist and CouchSurfing.com, but classier”), and a few days later, three convention attendees slept on blow-up mattresses on their apartment floor.
Great article! Curious as to your thoughts on the take-rate differential between ABNB and BKNG? Do you think that gap will remain in the future or close (either ABNB trying to improve profitability or BKNG trying to gain share)? I agree that in a portion of ABNB's bookings they have a unique proposition but suspect that things could get quite competitive over the more mainstream listings, reducing the profit pool for both companies?
In order for ABNB to ultimately hit that 30%+ EBITDA margin target, I believe that take-rates will have to increase. That said, as I noted in the post, I'd expect management to move somewhat slowly on this, particularly on the host side (we're still seeing some softness on both host growth and active listings growth post-COVID). IMO, they will likely focus on solidifying their competitive position over the next few years, not on reaching those LT margin targets.
Thanks Balaji! I think it's fair to assume that what we saw in the months after COVID, which reflected the inherent adaptability of the platform, would likely play out during a recession as well. I would expect ABNB to fare a bit better than some of the traditional hotel companies. Thanks for the kind words!
Great article! Curious as to your thoughts on the take-rate differential between ABNB and BKNG? Do you think that gap will remain in the future or close (either ABNB trying to improve profitability or BKNG trying to gain share)? I agree that in a portion of ABNB's bookings they have a unique proposition but suspect that things could get quite competitive over the more mainstream listings, reducing the profit pool for both companies?
Hi Generic,
In order for ABNB to ultimately hit that 30%+ EBITDA margin target, I believe that take-rates will have to increase. That said, as I noted in the post, I'd expect management to move somewhat slowly on this, particularly on the host side (we're still seeing some softness on both host growth and active listings growth post-COVID). IMO, they will likely focus on solidifying their competitive position over the next few years, not on reaching those LT margin targets.
Thanks for the thoughtful question!
Great analysis Alex !! I wonder how ABNB revenues will be impacted during a recession.. BKNG revenues remained impressive during 2008 crisis
Thanks Balaji! I think it's fair to assume that what we saw in the months after COVID, which reflected the inherent adaptability of the platform, would likely play out during a recession as well. I would expect ABNB to fare a bit better than some of the traditional hotel companies. Thanks for the kind words!