When it comes to investment results, I've seen it argued over and over before that having the right temperament is much more valuable than being very smart. Psychology and emotional discipline > intelligence. Investing is a rare field where level-headed people with no expertise can outperform professionals who think they are smarter than they really are.
I'm curious how you think this dynamic evolves with AI basically commoditizing research/analytical capabilities (i.e., everyone will be smart).
Personally, I quibble with the starting assumption that AI will commoditize research / analytical capabilities. I think it will surely impact the speed and efficiency through which one assembles the core building blocks of understanding, but I think that's a long ways off from acting on a long-term investment thesis that one has conviction is (and which isn't static for a number of reasons, not just those which are purely quantifiable / knowable). That then gets us to Munger's point, the influence / balance of knowledge and temperament in decision-making. Being smart surely helps, but it isn't enough on its own.
On the first notable item:
When it comes to investment results, I've seen it argued over and over before that having the right temperament is much more valuable than being very smart. Psychology and emotional discipline > intelligence. Investing is a rare field where level-headed people with no expertise can outperform professionals who think they are smarter than they really are.
I'm curious how you think this dynamic evolves with AI basically commoditizing research/analytical capabilities (i.e., everyone will be smart).
Neil,
Personally, I quibble with the starting assumption that AI will commoditize research / analytical capabilities. I think it will surely impact the speed and efficiency through which one assembles the core building blocks of understanding, but I think that's a long ways off from acting on a long-term investment thesis that one has conviction is (and which isn't static for a number of reasons, not just those which are purely quantifiable / knowable). That then gets us to Munger's point, the influence / balance of knowledge and temperament in decision-making. Being smart surely helps, but it isn't enough on its own.
- Alex