The Airbnb Blueprint
Review all prior ABNB research and portfolio changes on the TSOH website
From “Airbnb: Room To Breathe” (May 2026): “I think that Mr. Market will be more patient as long as solid growth and profitability is sustained in the core business, giving management room to breathe and to lay a solid foundation in those newer businesses (as CEO Brian Chesky says, to go from one to ten to many). A reacceleration in GBV growth is an encouraging sign of the sizable opportunities that lie ahead. I think the risk/reward on Airbnb stock remains attractive at current levels [at the time, ABNB traded at ~$130 per share].”
The solid growth that was required to appease Mr. Market has materialized: Airbnb reported strong 1H FY26 results, and with their Q3 FY26 guidance implying ~17% YoY TTM GBV growth in the coming quarter – a meaningful acceleration from the ~10% YoY growth that was reported in 1H FY25.
The Q2 results reflected broad-based geographic strength, most notably the acceleration to mid-teens YoY growth in North America, helped by the World Cup. Management didn’t directly quantify its impact, only saying it resulted in “millions of guest arrivals”, which compares to a total of ~148 million nights & experiences booked during Q2 FY26. As you can see below, North America revenues were up ~16% YoY, or roughly ten points higher than the average over the preceding two years. Given that the U.S. accounted for ~40% of Airbnb’s FY25 revenues, a ten point lift in the region would imply a roughly four point benefit to consolidated revenue growth, all else equal. If so, that would also suggest a tough comp for the business as we get to Q2 FY27.
For what it’s worth, someone in my network told me Airbnb disclosed on the follow-up call that the World Cup contributed less than one point to YoY room nights growth. I don’t know if that’s accurate or not; what I do know is that management shouldn’t be sharing such information behind closed doors. I’ve reached out to IR on this, and will let you know as I gather more information.
