In “Twitter: An Audacious Goal” (05/21/2021), I wrote the following: “Has Twitter truly changed? The Analyst Day event started with CEO Jack Dorsey explaining that he agrees with Twitter’s critics – “we agree we’ve been slow… we agree we haven’t been innovative… we agree many people don't trust us”. The problem I have with the “we’re better now” story is that many of the people in the C-Suite have been there for years. For example, Dorsey returned as CEO in 2015, and Ned Segal joined as CFO two years later (2017). The same is true for the Chief Technology Officer (Parag Agrawal) and the Head of Consumer Product (Kayvon Beykpour), who assumed their current roles in 2017 and 2018, respectively. A fair retort may be that change doesn’t happen overnight – for example, it takes years of effort to complete an “architecture rebuild” (it sounds like those efforts are still ongoing). All I’m saying is that I’m more skeptical than the bulls that this management team has suddenly seen the light, especially since they’ve had their hands on the steering wheel for many years. (The fact that Elliott Management was trying to push Dorsey out early last year speaks to this reality.)”
I agree with your take here, as a former TWTR owner/bull, I believe the service continues to be very valuable and under-monetized. But the probabilities are not on TWTR's side. And the decision is made easier when I think about owning FB/META instead (even with potential capital misuse).
Great thoughts Alex. In agreement that the mDAU target is anchoring the stock, and I am doubtful they reach it by FY23. Whilst I think that doesn't actually matter, it certainly matters for the stock.
Has Twitter Truly Changed?
I agree with your take here, as a former TWTR owner/bull, I believe the service continues to be very valuable and under-monetized. But the probabilities are not on TWTR's side. And the decision is made easier when I think about owning FB/META instead (even with potential capital misuse).
Great thoughts Alex. In agreement that the mDAU target is anchoring the stock, and I am doubtful they reach it by FY23. Whilst I think that doesn't actually matter, it certainly matters for the stock.