Comcast: A Long-Awaited Pivot
Is Mr. Market's apathy misguided or justified?
Note: Review all prior Comcast (CMCSA) research on the TSOH website
From “A Transformational Moment” (November 2025):
“I would likely act if I became more confident Comcast management is open to monetizing NBCUniversal (NBCU) and unlocking significant per share value. In my view, the assets could command a price tag that would equate to a large majority of the market cap [at $25 per share]… If there’s growing indication that a deal is being considered, it’s likely I’d buy Comcast.”
I sold Comcast in November 2023 for two key reasons: (1) sustained deterioration in the core Cable franchise, to a degree that led me to believe my thesis for that business was no longer valid; and (2) a lack of evidence management recognized and was appropriately reacting to the realities of what was happening, with a similar dour view on dithering at NBCUniversal.
The roots on the second point go back much further. The following is from “Peacock: From DTC To DOA?”, which I published in May 2021: “I don’t think that management is serious about making the tough decisions that are necessary for any shot at real success in the global DTC business… [But] as time passes, the odds of a big strategic change - particularly at NBCUniversal - seems to be declining. There’s a lack of urgency from management.”
That brings us to Comcast’s big announcement: on June 29th, management outlined their intention to separate into two publicly traded companies, Comcast Cable and NBCU / Sky. Considering that Comcast management has shot down speculation around an NBCU spin as recently as January 2026, this news is a material and unexpected change to the Comcast story.
Interestingly, while the stock price surged more than 20% on the morning of the separation announcement, it has since given back all of those gains.
On Friday afternoon, CMCSA closed at ~$24 per share – down about 60% from the peak levels that the stock reached in mid-2021 (~$58 per share).
Is Mr. Market’s apathy presenting a compelling investment opportunity?