Chipotle: Recipe For Growth
“He has not risen to the occasion yet.”
From “We Had Lines Out The Door” (March 2022):
“Chipotle has been a major success story during its 15-year run as a public company. Long-term shareholders who have weathered volatile periods - in terms of the stock price and the business results - have been handsomely rewarded for their patience. If history is any indication, we’ll see another rough stretch at some point; if that happens again, I will be ready to act.”
That rough stretch has arrived.
Chipotle reported -1.7% comps in FY25, led by a 2.9% decline in comp transactions; that was inclusive of -2.5% comps in Q4, with transactions -3.2%. Outside of the pandemic and the 2015 / 2016 health safety issues, these are the weakest comps at Chipotle in the past two decades – with guidance (roughly flat comps) assuming similar lackluster results in FY26.
In addition, CEO Brian Niccol, who joined the company to much fanfare in 2018, left in August 2024 to accept the top job at Starbucks. He was replaced by COO Scott Boatwright, who joined Chipotle in 2017. The stock, which reached a high of ~$69 per share in June 2024, has since been cut in half.
